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Investing

Looking Into a ‘Back to the Future’ Market

By
Tom Wald, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer, Transamerica Asset Management, Inc.

In this article, we review:

  • A potential economic and corporate earnings recovery over the next two years
  • The impact on stock valuations of a continued low interest rate environment
  • How continued Federal Reserve monetary stimulus could be a tailwind for stocks
  • How potential volatility in the months ahead could provide opportunity for investors

 

In the 1985 classic movie, “Back to the Future,” young Marty McFly is thrust back 30 years into the past and spends most of the film trying to get back to the present day. When he finally does at the story’s conclusion, he finds his efforts have changed the course of history, as his mediocre family is now rich and successful and its nemesis, Biff the bully, is washing his father’s car.

With this image in mind, we believe we could now be staring into a “Back to the Future” market for stocks, as gross domestic product (GDP) and corporate earnings scratch and claw over the next couple of years to return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. However once they do, the investment climate could value them higher than before based on the changing environment necessary to get there. This could provide investors with an interesting opportunity, to say the least.

Imagine this for a moment: Following the cataclysmic 2Q 2020 GDP report of -33% annualized contraction, the U.S. economy begins to recover and officially moves out of recession status as most forecasts are now calling for 15%–20% sequential, quarter-over-quarter economic growth in 3Q 2020 and above trend growth of about 3% for calendar year of 2021. At this pace, aggregate GDP would fully recover to annual 2019 pre-virus inflation-adjusted levels by about the end of 2022.

On the corporate earnings front, expectations for CY 2020 are for a massive decline of about 20% for underlying S&P 500® companies (S&P 500 operating earnings per share) as compared to 2019 profits. In dollar terms, this shakes out at about $128 for the year, which, in comparison to 2019 profits of $163, certainly looks abysmal. However, early forecasts for 2021 operating earnings seem to be converging right back in the $163 range.

While this “catch-up” scenario for both aggregate GDP and corporate earnings may at first appear to be a good bit behind the curve for the next two years or so, we encourage investors to consider a picture of the overall environment once pre-pandemic economic growth and corporate profitability levels are re-achieved.

Once they are, we will likely still be looking at a long-term interest rate environment dramatically lower than the last time these GDP and earnings levels were present in the markets, as well as continuing large-scale, open-market asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. Trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus will also likely have filtered through the economy by that time.

While there has been much talk about stretched valuations in the equity markets, primarily based on a comparison of current-versus-historical price-earnings multiples, the existing historically low, short- and long-term interest rate climate argues a different perspective. That being, with short-term rates close to zero and long-term yields challenging all-time lows (10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 0.58% as of August 10), valuations of stocks need to take into account these low- or no-yielding, risk-free interest rates that remain at unprecedented levels.

The relatively basic but still effective valuation metric, the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) calculation, infers real value for stocks at current price points. The ERP is a simple calculation taking the earnings yield on stocks and subtracting the current long-term, risk-free rate. This helps investors determine how much risk the market is pricing for stocks versus guaranteed interest rates. So in applying this valuation metric to gauge the opportunity in equities, the current interest rate environment plays a crucial role along with stock earnings.

equity risk premium chart

When using the August 10, 2020 closing price of the S&P 500 (3,360) and applying the expected calendar year net profits of $128 on the underlying index companies, the earnings yield calculates to about 3.8%. When subtracting the current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (0.58%) as a proxy for the long-term, risk-free rate, a net equity premium of about 3.3% remains, a level that has historically resulted in well-above-average equity returns for the cumulative three-year period to follow. It is also our judgment that short-term interest rates will remain at or near zero between now and the end of 2022, and while longer-term rates could edge higher, they will also likely remain within a historically low range favorable for equity valuations.

Then, of course, there is also the consideration that the Federal Reserve will likely extend its monetary stimulus in the form of large-scale asset purchases quite possibly all the way to the end of 2022 and perhaps beyond. This will create additional wind at the market’s back in the form of liquidity and credit support providing for, all else being equal, a stronger case to own stocks and credit-oriented fixed income. Currently the Fed is buying about $120 billion of bonds per month in the open markets.

Is there a precedent to how the market has reacted during a similar type of “Back to the Future” scenario in the past? We say there is, when during the time frame of June 2009 through June 2011, aggregate GDP and corporate earnings were moving upward to fully recover toward pre-Great-Recession levels, against a backdrop of zero short-term interest rates and large amounts of Fed open market activity. Over those two years, the S&P 500 posted a cumulative total return of 45%. So while we are not forecasting stock returns of an equivalent magnitude over the next two years, we do believe double-digit annual returns are certainly achievable given the similar market characteristics. As Mark Twain once said, “History may not repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.”

We also remind investors to brace for short-term market volatility as a myriad of events — economic, political and medical — are likely to play out between now and year-end. This could include COVID-19 vaccine news, fiscal stimulus negotiations in Congress, macroeconomic and corporate earnings data, and, of course, the upcoming November elections. Any or all of these developments could lead to heightened market emotions. However in a potential “Back to the Future” market, such volatility could also play toward investor opportunities.

economic recovery chart with stimulus

Investments are subject to market risk, including the loss of principal. Asset classes or investment strategies described may not be suitable for all investors.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Fixed income investing is subject to credit rate risk, interest rate risk, and inflation risk. Credit risk is the risk that the issuer of a bond won’t meet their payments. Inflation risk is the risk that inflation could outpace a bond’s interest income. Interest rate risk is the risk that fluctuations in interest rates will affect the price of a bond. Investing in floating rate loans may be subject to greater volatility and increased risks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial market disruption and dislocation around the world including the U.S. During periods of market disruption, which may trigger trading halts, the funds exposure to the risks described elsewhere in the prospectus will likely increase. As a result, whether or not the fund invests in securities of issuers located in or with significant exposure to the countries directly affected, the value and liquidity of the funds investments may be negatively affected.

Equities are subject to market risk meaning that stock prices in general may decline over short or extended periods of time.

Investments in global/international markets involve risks not associated with U.S. markets, such as currency fluctuations, adverse social and political developments, and the relatively small size and lesser liquidity of some markets. These risks may be greater in emerging markets.

10-Year Treasury Average Yield: The average daily treasury yield for U.S. Treasury Notes with a maturity of ten years (negotiable debt obligations of the U.S. Government, considered intermediate in maturity). 

S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks primarily traded on the New York Stock Exchange, weighted by market capitalization. Index performance includes the reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. 

The information included in this document should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material contains general information only on investment matters; it should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon as such. The information does not take into account any investor’s investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. The value of any investment may fluctuate. This information has been developed by Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. and may incorporate third party data, text, images, and other content to be deemed reliable.

Comments and general market-related projections are based on information available at the time of writing and believed to be accurate; are for informational purposes only, are not intended as individual or specific advice, may not represent the opinions of the entire firm and may not be relied upon for future investing. Investors are advised to consult with their investment professional about their specific financial needs and goals before making any investment decisions.

Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. is an SEC-registered investment adviser. The funds advised and sponsored by Transamerica Asset Management, Inc. include Transamerica Funds, Transamerica Series Trust and DeltaShares® exchange-traded funds. Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Aegon N.V., an international life insurance, pension, and asset management company.

 

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Investing
Tom Wald